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A Strong or Weak Iran

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Opinion

By Jed Hackett

Iran is threatening the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sentencing an American citizen to death on the grounds of spying, and making an alliance with other anti-American governments.

CNN correspondent Fareed Zakaria said that if Iran were to close the Strait, they would in fact cripple not only the world’s economy, but also their own economy. In fact, instead of depicting Iran as a strong power poised only to take on a greater role in the world, he said that Iran is weak, and only getting weaker.

He pointed out that several things are contributing to their slow decline on the world stage. One is the value of their currency. Zakaria says the rial has no real value. And who’s to say he’s wrong? It takes 15,600 rials to equal one dollar.

Another point he made is that their local ally, Syria is itself crumbling in on itself. With the international community watching the situation in Syria and Arab League monitors in Syria revealing the atrocities committed by the Assad regime, it is only a matter of time before Iran loses its only supporter left within the Middle East.

A few weeks ago, a naval admiral in the Iranian navy stated that Iran intended on cutting off access to the Strait of Hormuz, an important shipping lane where much of the world’s oil supply goes through. This was supposedly in return of stricter sanctions placed by the United States and its allies.

But this was quickly back tracked by a senior of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s equivalent of the Army, saying that Tehran has no intentions of blocking off the strait to international traffic.

Zakaria stated that while the threat would harm the global markets, Iran itself would hurt more than any other country. And once again, Zakaria isn’t wrong. Oil exports through the strait account for 60% of the Iranian economy, and with an already crippled economy, that sort of action would severely cripple the nation.

But, Zakaria made a turn around, saying that Iran did indeed have some weight to throw around in the global boxing ring. Their weight would be their nuclear program; in seventy years it has made progress.

But that program has taken a hit. Recently Iran announced that one of its nuclear scientists had been killed, and they accused the CIA and Israeli Mossad of killing him. And of course both countries denied any involvement in the assassination.

But the situation still remains. What are we to do, if anything, about Iran? There doesn’t seem to be any simple solution when it comes to meddling in the affairs of another nation.

But there are complex answers. We could simply do the hard thing and wait. The supreme leader of Iran is growing old, and can only last so much longer. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can only stay in power for so much longer.

If the Western world keeps its patience, Iran will slowly fade away as its leadership loses popular support, increased international condemnation, and an ageing leadership. There is no use in saying, “We should’ve invaded while we were there.” No point in living in the past and carrying the regrets of it to present decisions.

Time is the key when it comes to dealing with regimes such as Iran, only time will tell what will happen.

Granite Hills teacher Jane Kisling believes that “[Iran] is a volatile situation that could lead to a military confrontation between the US and Iran.”

And while time may tell, we will all have ideas of what an unresolved situation with Iran may lead to.

“We have to be careful with our dealings with Iran because they might be a nuclear power, and if not now, then soon. Their interests seem to opposite of ours on the international stage, so we have to decide are we going to let them be a problem or be like Israel and, who probably did kill their nuclear scientist,” stated Evan Hackett, English teacher at Granite Hills.

Above Image: Courtesy of MCT Campus.

Learn More

Fareed Zakaria on Iran

CNN Iran sentences American to death

Iranian Enrichment Program

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